3月30日晚间，沙钢股份、马钢股份相继发布2019年年报，虽均有盈利，但净利同比却大幅下降。沙钢股份净利腰斩，为5.29亿元，同比降55%;马钢股份净利11.28亿元，同比降幅达81%。

On the evening of March 30, Shagang and Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. issued their 2019 annual reports one after another. Although they were profitable, their net profit fell sharply year on year. The net profit of Shagang Co., Ltd. was RMB 529 million, a year-on-year decrease of 55%; the net profit of Masteel Co., Ltd. was RMB 1.128 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 81%.

稍早前，鞍钢股份年报显示，去年净利17.87亿元，同比大降78%;基本每股收益0.19元，同比大降78%。不过，其去年营收却略有增长。而沙钢股份、马钢股份去年营收均有所下降，分别降8.41%、4.5%。

Earlier, the annual report of Angang Steel showed that the net profit of last year was 1.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 78%; the basic earnings per share was 0.19 yuan, a year-on-year drop of 78%. However, its revenue grew slightly last year. However, the revenue of Shagang and Masteel decreased by 8.41% and 4.5% respectively last year.

据不完全统计，截至目前，已有超20家上市钢企公布2019年业绩，其中过半数钢企2019年净利降幅在50%以上。值得注意的是，去年普钢企业利润基本全在下降，而特钢企业普遍在上升，比如中信特钢、久立特材和西宁特钢等。

According to incomplete statistics, up to now, more than 20 listed steel enterprises have announced their 2019 performance, and more than half of them have seen their net profit decrease by more than 50% in 2019. It is worth noting that last year, the profits of ordinary steel enterprises were basically declining, while the profits of special steel enterprises were generally rising, such as CITIC special steel, Jiuli special material and Xining Special Steel.

为何净利纷纷大降?

Why are net profits falling?

据分析，上市钢企去年净利下降应该与钢铁去产能结束之后，产能新一轮扩张有很大关系。“2017年、2018年利润之所以好，是因为大力去产能，清除了 ‘地条钢’，同时房地产需求也特别的好，供需双方合力，拉高了钢厂利润，尤其2018年钢厂赚钱就像印钞机一样。”

According to the analysis, last year's net profit decline of listed steel enterprises should be closely related to the new round of capacity expansion after the end of steel capacity reduction. "The reason why the profits in 2017 and 2018 are good is that we have made great efforts to reduce the production capacity and eliminate the" strip steel ". At the same time, the real estate demand is also particularly good. The joint efforts of the supply and demand sides have increased the profits of the steel mills, especially in 2018, the steel mills make money just like the money printing machine."

不过，去产能结束之后，新一轮产能变相的扩张，就悄然开始了。钢铁产能开始增加，而需求端随着房地产投资逐渐趋稳，且有所下滑。

However, after the end of capacity removal, a new round of capacity expansion in disguised form will begin quietly. Steel production capacity began to increase, while demand side gradually stabilized with real estate investment, and declined.

值得注意的是，去年还有个意外因素——原料价格。由于淡水河谷在巴西的溃坝事故，造成淡水河谷去年大约9000万左右的产能停产，铁矿石价格大涨。

It is worth noting that there was another unexpected factor last year - raw material prices. Vale's dam break in Brazil shut down about 90 million production capacity last year, and iron ore prices soared.

“我的钢铁网”资讯总监徐向春表示：“去年我们统计钢材价格平均下跌了7%左右，而原料成本却上升12%，必然进一步挤压利润空间。”“去年钢企利润降低，本是在意料之中的，大家认为会降三成或四成，但最终降幅如此之大，远超出了预期，可能多了原料价格因素的影响。”

"Last year, we calculated that steel prices fell by about 7% on average, while raw material costs rose by 12%, which will further squeeze the profit margin," said Xu Xiangchun, information director of my steel network "Last year, the profit of steel enterprises decreased, which was expected. People think it will be reduced by 30% or 40%, but the final decline is so large, far exceeding the expectation, which may be influenced by the factors of raw material price."

对于净利大降，鞍钢股份董事长王义栋在3月30日业绩说明会上解释称，宏观经济增速放缓，钢铁行业利润整体呈下降趋势。原燃料价格同比上涨明显，2019年矿价同比2018年上涨25.3%，钢企利润空间被迫收窄。公司主要客户端需求下降，公司主打的汽车行业下降19.05%，市场竞争更趋激烈。

As for the sharp drop in net profit, Wang Yidong, chairman of Angang Steel, explained at the performance briefing on March 30 that the macro-economic growth slowed down and the overall profit of the steel industry declined. The price of raw materials and fuels rose significantly year-on-year. In 2019, the price of ore rose 25.3% year-on-year in 2018, and the profit margin of steel enterprises was forced to narrow. The demand of the company's main clients decreased, the company's main automobile industry decreased by 19.05%, and the market competition became more intense.

沙钢股份、马钢股份方面也认为，去年净利下降主要是由于钢价下跌、部分原燃料价格高位震荡所致，钢企盈利空间受到严重挤压。

Shagang and Maanshan Steel also believe that the decrease in net profit last year was mainly due to the fall in steel prices and the high volatility of some raw fuel prices, which severely squeezed the profit space of steel enterprises.

沙钢集团董事局主席沈文荣说，“我们的原料供应，特别是矿粉受制于人，所以要加大这方面的投资力度，我们准备寻找新的矿山，赢得高速发展主动权。另外在技术方面的投资也要进一步扩大，比如我们的超薄带，未来五年还要建第二第三条，不断扩大国际市场竞争力。”

Shen Wenrong, chairman of the board of directors of Shagang Group, said, "our supply of raw materials, especially mineral powder, is subject to human production, so we need to increase investment in this area. We are ready to find new mines and win the initiative of high-speed development. In addition, investment in technology should also be further expanded, such as our ultra thin belt. In the next five years, we will build a second and third article to continuously expand the competitiveness of the international market. "

鞍钢股份方面预计，2020年置换产能项目将集中投产，给市场带来供应压力，钢价将呈现震荡下行态势，导致钢企利润不断收窄，市场竞争日趋激烈。

Angang Steel expects that the replacement capacity project will be put into operation in 2020, which will bring supply pressure to the market, and the steel price will show a downward trend of shock, resulting in the continuous narrowing of the profits of steel enterprises and the increasingly fierce market competition.

而今年的新情况是，由于疫情冲击，使得本来正处于一种下行的钢铁业，所面临的形势变得更加严峻。

This year's new situation is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the steel industry, which is in a downward trend, is facing a more serious situation.

销售利润率降至4%是正常回落

Sales profit margin dropped to 4%, which is a normal decline

据了解，抛开矿价影响，2019年钢企利润的下降，实际上也是中国钢铁行业一个合理回归。因为2018年的高利润是不可持续的。

It is understood that, regardless of the impact of ore prices, the decline of steel enterprises' profits in 2019 is actually a reasonable return for China's steel industry. Because high profits in 2018 are unsustainable.

徐向春说：“我们还曾跟踪了另外一个指标，从国家统计局公布的黑色压延制造业销售利润率来衡量，行业有一个大致接近的销售利润率来表明利润，应该说是基本均衡的。钢铁销售利润率在2018年时达到了6.2%，是历史最好的，与工业平均利润率基本持平。”

Xu Xiangchun said: "we have also tracked another indicator, measured by the sales profit margin of black calendering manufacturing published by the National Bureau of statistics. The industry has a roughly similar sales profit margin to show the profit, which should be said to be basically balanced. The profit margin of steel sales reached 6.2% in 2018, which is the best in history and basically the same as the average industrial profit margin. "

“不过，按以往规律，钢铁销售利润率总是比工业平均利润率低两三个点，才是正常利润水平”，徐向春对经济观察网记者表示，“所以前年的情况就不太正常了”。

"However, according to the past law, the profit margin of steel sales is always two or three points lower than the average industrial profit margin, which is the normal profit level," Xu Xiangchun told the economic observation network, "so the situation in the previous year was not very normal.".

在他看来，6.2%的销售利润率回落两个点降到2019年的4%，是一种正常回落，是钢铁行业比较合理、可持续的一个利润水平。从这个角度讲，利润应该回归。

In his opinion, the 6.2% sales profit margin dropped by two points to 4% in 2019, which is a normal decline and a relatively reasonable and sustainable profit level for the steel industry. From this point of view, profits should return。